Posted by
Jack Fisher on Monday, February 09, 2009 2:51:12 PM
Human intuition is an amazing yet complex phenomena. Many everyday decisions are made on intuition. Sometimes it's as simple as deciding what to eat and other times it's as complex as formulating an economic policy. Intuition is like instinct in that it feels intrinsically right so people don't question it or think too much about it. It's a good thing too because it saves on mental energy. But there are times when intuition may be false.
Take the current prevailing intuition among politicians and the average joe regarding the economy. They rationalize that since the economy has slowed, government spending will stimulate it by pumping money into it. It's an age-old tactic championed by the likes of FDR and Barack Obama. It sounds good on paper. It makes intuitive sense that pumping money into the economy will stimulate it. But anybody who has a more intimate knowledge of economics understands that it doesn't work that way. Government spending does not create any new wealth. It just takes the wealth from one area and tries to redistribute it into another, often hindering those who would create new wealth. It's the reason why the New Deal didn't end the Great Depression and why these huge economic bubbles keep popping and creating great upheavals. John Stossel explained it a great deal in his article appropriately titled "We can't spend our way to prosparity"
Take another less complicated example. In the 70s, the drinking age laws across the country were changed from 18 to 21. The intuitive reasoning was that if the law said that youths couldn't drink until a later age it would cut down on alcohol related deviance. This makes sense on the surface, but research and statistics do not fully support this. The law will not stop youths from drinking. It is not a behavior that involves intruding upon the natural rights of others. It is an entirely self-regulated behavior that affects only the user and how it affects that user will differ from how it affects others. So while many may drink responsibily, there will be those who abuse it. But that applies to any substance or behavior including other drugs and activities like driving. In fact, some researchers claim that those who drink underage do so in more risky ways. Because its legality is taboo, it becomes a sourse of rebellion among users and that can be a reinforcing factor. Another article by John Stossel helps explain this matter further.
Take this notion of intuition other domains such as religion and faith. Many reason that if life looks like it's been created then maybe there's a creator. Others reason that because they intuitively feel the presence of the divine, there must be a divine force. These notions seem entirely reasonable, but they have no objective basis in reality. They are entirely subjective assumptions bound by human error. Intuition by its own nature is someone's way of coming to a conclusion when they do not have all the facts. And the irony is that nobody has all the facts and probably never will. So at the expense of torturing themselves over so much uncertainty, intuition provides what seems a safe and reasonable assumption that fills an otherwise uncomfortable void.
From humans to insects, intuition has its uses and shortcomings. What seems to make sense doesn't always hold true in a larger scheme. That is why it is important to use inductive reasoning, following the evidence to a conclusion before making a large assumption. And for that which is unknown or unknowable, one must become comfortable with the notion of uncertainty. It's difficult to say sometimes, but the best answer is often "I don't know." But uncertainty is not easy to deal with. Many would rather be certain than be right. That can provide comfort, but it can also cloud judgment. And in a society as complex as ours, poor judgment can lead to major consequences.